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Hurricane Irene advisory 14 from the National Hurricane Center, Miami
  
Tuesday, 23 August 2011 16:22
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 71.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST.  IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE
WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN